TankerMap takeaway
The latest complete UTC day in TankerMap, July 22, does not show a collapse in tanker movements through the southern Red Sea gateway. Bab el-Mandeb recorded 5 tanker transits, which TankerMap flags as 14% above the preceding 7-day average. Suez Canal tanker transits reached 12 on the same day, 5% below the preceding 7-day average. Read together, the chart points to continued use of the corridor rather than a clear stop in traffic, even as security headlines intensified.
What changed
Bloomberg said oil rose as Houthi attacks on tankers in the Red Sea opened a new front in the regional conflict, while President Donald Trump threatened to widen US strikes on Iran. Against that backdrop, the latest TankerMap point shows Bab el-Mandeb traffic at 5 on July 22, up from 2 on July 21. Over the past month the series has been volatile, with several zero or near-zero days, but also rebounds to 6, 9, and again 5. The moving average on the Bab el-Mandeb chart has also risen from roughly the low-2s in late June to 4.4 by July 22. Suez traffic was steadier: 12 transits on July 22 versus 11 on July 21, though still slightly under its recent average.
Why it matters
Bab el-Mandeb is the immediate maritime gateway for tanker traffic moving between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, while Suez indicates whether flows are continuing northbound through Egypt. If attacks were immediately forcing a broad rerouting response, the first signal would typically be sustained weakness in Bab el-Mandeb counts, followed by softer Suez transits. So far, the latest complete daily data does not confirm that pattern. Instead, it suggests that shipowners and charterers may still be accepting some exposure, or that vessels already committed to voyages are continuing to pass. For oil markets, that means geopolitical risk may be rising faster than physically verified disruption in tanker flows.
Uncertainty
Daily chokepoint counts are inherently noisy, and the Bab el-Mandeb chart shows sharp day-to-day swings, including zeros, which means one complete day cannot establish a durable trend. The data also does not by itself show freight rates, insurance costs, delays, convoy behavior, or diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. In addition, Bloomberg reports attacks and political threats, but the supplied TankerMap evidence does not identify which vessels were targeted or whether any specific incidents directly interrupted passage on July 22.
What would confirm or refute
A confirmed deterioration would look like several consecutive complete UTC days of depressed Bab el-Mandeb transits, especially if Suez counts also weakened after a lag. A rise in zero-transit days, fewer crude tanker passages, or a sustained drop below recent moving averages would strengthen the case for real disruption. The opposite would refute it: if Bab el-Mandeb remains around current levels or rebounds further, and Suez traffic stays near its recent range, the evidence would favor resilience in tanker flows despite heightened security risk.