Bloomberg reports that CSIS senior fellow Will Todman sees a low-level conflict with intermittent flare-ups between the US and Iran as more likely than an all-out war, arguing that the economic costs for both sides are too high. For tanker markets, that points to a security backdrop defined less by a prolonged shutdown scenario and more by episodic risk that can quickly affect sentiment, insurance costs and voyage planning in the Gulf.
The Strait of Hormuz remains central because Iran is described as keen to retain control over the chokepoint as both an economic and strategic negotiating tool. That keeps crude and products shipping through the Gulf under close watch, with any rise in tension likely to matter first through freight volatility, routing decisions and port call risk rather than through an immediate halt to regional oil flows.