Shipping disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could leave global LNG trade broadly flat in 2026, according to Shell, even if traffic conditions improve within the next three months. The forecast highlights how a relatively short period of instability at the Gulf chokepoint can still remove enough cargo movement and scheduling certainty to stall annual LNG trade growth.
For TankerMap, the key signal is operational rather than only macro. Hormuz remains a core exit route for Gulf LNG, so delayed transits, slower vessel rotations and cautious chartering can quickly reshape loading programs and fleet positioning. Shell still expects LNG trade growth to resume in 2027 and sees long-term demand rising toward 2050, but the near-term message is that shipping friction at Hormuz is large enough to flatten this year's seaborne LNG expansion.