Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russia's key oil export facilities on the Baltic and Black Sea coasts are putting India's crude refining sector at risk, the International Energy Agency warned. India has become one of the largest buyers of discounted Russian Urals crude since Western sanctions pushed Moscow to redirect exports eastward.
The strikes have damaged loading infrastructure at ports including Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk — two of Russia's most critical crude export hubs. Any prolonged disruption to these terminals would reduce the volume of Aframax and Suezmax tankers loading Russian crude for voyages to Indian refiners. TankerMap data shows sustained tanker traffic on the Russia-India corridor, with dozens of vessels currently en route or loaded with Russian crude bound for ports including Vadinar, Jamnagar, and Paradip.
The IEA cautioned that near-term supply shortfalls to Indian refiners are a realistic scenario if the strikes continue. Indian refineries have built up significant dependence on Russian crude, which has accounted for as much as 40% of their total intake in recent months, making alternative sourcing a logistically complex and costly proposition.