Oil could surge to $200 a barrel if the war with Iran lasts through June and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, according to Macquarie Group. The warning highlights the scale of risk still embedded in crude markets as traders weigh not only physical supply losses, but also the possibility of a prolonged shutdown at the world's most important oil transit chokepoint.
For shipping, the scenario would mean more than a price spike. A sustained closure would continue to sideline tanker capacity, distort trade routes and keep insurance, security and freight costs elevated across crude, products and LNG. TankerMap's live coverage spans 3,201 crude tankers, 904 LNG vessels and 34 ports, illustrating how a disruption in Hormuz can rapidly reshape fleet deployment and cargo competition across both Atlantic and Asian markets.
Even if $200 oil remains a stress-case forecast, the call reinforces how exposed refiners, importers and shipowners remain to any delay in reopening Gulf export channels.