Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has raised its 2026 oil price forecasts in response to what it characterizes as the largest supply shock ever recorded for global crude markets. The bank's revised outlook reflects the prolonged disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil.
The investment bank's analysis emphasizes that current market pricing may underestimate the severity and duration of supply constraints stemming from the Iran conflict. With production declines estimated between 7 and 10 million barrels per day across the Middle East, Goldman sees sustained upward pressure on crude prices throughout the year.
The bank's assessment aligns with broader market sentiment that the Hormuz closure—now in its fourth consecutive week—represents an unprecedented challenge to global energy security. Regional infrastructure damage, heightened geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty over the timeline for normalcy all contribute to Goldman's bullish crude outlook.
TankerMap data corroborates these supply-side concerns. Supertanker positions in the Persian Gulf show minimal loading activity, with most vessels either idle or positioned away from key export terminals. This operational reality suggests that Goldman's elevated forecasts may prove conservative if diplomatic negotiations stall or military escalation resumes.