Major Arab Gulf oil producers have the technical capacity to bring half of their currently shuttered fields back to prewar production levels within two weeks of Strait of Hormuz transit reopening, the International Energy Agency said. The assessment offers a degree of reassurance to markets rattled by the prolonged blockage of one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints.
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of the world's oil trade. With the waterway disrupted by the ongoing Iran conflict, Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq have been forced to scale back output they cannot export. The IEA's timeline suggests a faster-than-expected supply recovery once hostilities ease — though the second half of shut capacity could take considerably longer to restore.
TankerMap data shows the number of laden VLCCs waiting in Gulf waters has declined sharply since the Hormuz disruption began, reflecting constrained loadings at terminals including Ras Tanura and Kharg Island. A resumption of transit would trigger an immediate surge in tanker departures, with vessels queued for loading likely to dispatch within days.